Global Avionics Round-Up from Aircraft Value News (AVN)
John Persinos, editor-in-chief of Aircraft Value Intelligence
Editor’s Note: The following article expands significantly on the topics covered in a video presentation by John Persinos. For a concise overview, watch his video report at: www.aircraftvaluenews.com/video/
For years, international aviation has been a Boeing-Airbus duopoly, with Western carriers and their alliances setting the tone while everyone else played catch-up. That balance is starting to look a little less predictable, thanks to aggressive moves from Beijing.
China’s airlines now control 66.5% of international routes connecting China with overseas destinations, according to analysis shared at a recent industry summit in Beijing by IBA Group, a UK-based aviation intelligence firm. Foreign carriers, once evenly matched with domestic airlines at roughly 50% of the market before the pandemic, have seen their share fall to 33.5%.
Accordingly, the state-backed Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) has set ambitious plans to usurp the Boeing-Airbus duopoly. To be sure, COMAC still has a very long way to go. But persistent trade tensions, tit-for-tat tariffs, and the fracturing of the Western alliance have given China a greater opening.
Yes, the Boeing-Airbus duopoly seems unassailable right now, but China plays the long game. Disruption is an inevitable occurrence in technology, business, and geopolitics. Let’s take a closer look.
Geopolitical Turmoil, Unabated
IBA data showed Chinese airlines posting a 0.3% year-over-year increase in available seat kilometres in April, a modest but notable gain in an unsettled global environment. At the same time, Middle Eastern carriers saw a 50% year-over-year drop in available seat kilometres. It’s a lesson in how quickly geopolitical instability can roil aviation networks that heavily depend on connected hubs and transfer traffic.
According to IBA, global passenger demand, as measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs), could run 1% to 3% below earlier expectations this year as rising oil prices and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe drive up airline costs and disrupt key air corridors. When fuel becomes more expensive and flight routes less predictable, airlines often trim capacity. What ensues is the surprisingly rapid unravelling of aviation’s global connectivity.
In a concurrent trend, the airline industry’s outlook for 2026 has taken a sharp turn downward. The consensus of analysts now finds that airline profits are on track to be nearly half of what was previously forecast. The downgrade comes as fuel prices surge amid the protracted closure of the Strait of Hormuz and continued disruptions to major air routes.
Jet fuel costs in 2026 are projected to climb roughly 70% year-over-year, a spike that is eating into margins across the sector. Airline margins are razor thin even in the best of times, and these are certainly not the best of times.
As a result, airlines worldwide are now expected to generate about $23 billion in net profit in 2026, based on a new assessment from the International Air Transport Association (IATA). That figure marks a steep revision from earlier expectations of around $41 billion and also trails the estimated $45 billion the industry is estimated to have earned in 2025.
From a global perspective, what had looked like aviation’s steady post-pandemic recovery is now facing renewed pressure from volatile energy markets and geopolitics. Despite overly optimistic governmental proclamations of negotiating “progress” in the Iran conflict, these pressures in reality show little sign of easing.
By contrast, Chinese carriers have enjoyed a cushion. Domestic demand has remained strong enough to keep aircraft flying and fleets relatively well utilized, which in turn supports continued international expansion. Instead of scrambling to rebuild networks, Chinese carriers have been in a position to grow them.
COMAC Still Faces Daunting Challenges
To be sure, COMAC is heavily reliant on Western parts and components for its narrowbody flagship, the C919, and its regional jet the C909. Aviation manufacturing still presents formidable barriers to entry.
It’s also worth noting that COMAC deliveries to date have fallen far short of Beijing’s expectations. COMAC’s C919 program has repeatedly missed or scaled back delivery targets. In 2025, the manufacturer reduced its delivery goal from 75 aircraft to 25 and still delivered only 15 C919s by year-end.
These numbers pale in comparison to the output of the industry’s established Western heavyweights. European-based Airbus delivered 793 commercial aircraft in 2025, while U.S.-based Boeing handed over 600 jets. The latter OEM racked up those impressive numbers, despite continuing to recover from production, regulatory and reputational setbacks.
There’s still an enormous gap COMAC must close before it can significantly challenge the global duopoly on production scale. However, this moment is pivotal because it’s not just about airlines. The emergence of Chinese-built aircraft and the country’s expanding aerospace supply chains represent a broadening Chinese infrastructure, especially as the world’s second-largest economy increasingly makes deals with emerging markets.
John Persinos is editor-in-chief of Aircraft Value Intelligence. You can find his concise video summary of this topic by clicking this URL: www.aircraftvaluenews.com/video/
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