Airbus Encounters Headwinds in China

Global Avionics Round-Up from Aircraft Value News (AVN)

Editor’s Note: For a condensed version of this story in video format, click here.

One truism stands out in geopolitics: China is a master of the long game. As evidence, consider how the world’s second-largest economy is turning up the pressure on European-based aircraft maker Airbus.

From January to May, Airbus delivered just 16 aircraft to Chinese airlines, a steep decline from the 47 aircraft delivered during the same five-month period last year. The slowdown appears to be more than a temporary hiccup.

Beijing has reportedly delayed final approvals for Airbus deliveries as frustration grows over Europe’s pace in certifying China’s domestically developed C919, a narrowbody passenger jet built by the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC).

The C919 is already certified by China’s regulator, the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), and has been in commercial service in that country since 2023. However, aircraft generally can’t enter a market or be operated by airlines in a jurisdiction without certification from the relevant aviation authority.

Europe is a huge, lucrative aerospace market that China is trying to crack. However, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has been slow to approve the C919 within its jurisdiction.

The dispute highlights the increasingly complicated relationship between China and the Western aerospace industry. Beijing has made it a national priority to create a globally competitive aircraft manufacturer, but aerospace has steep barriers to entry. The entrenched aircraft manufacturing duopoly of Airbus and Boeing still dominates.

For Airbus, the timing could hardly be worse. The European manufacturer recently reported its weakest first-quarter commercial aircraft deliveries since 2009. Industry reports indicate that nearly 20 aircraft have been caught in a bureaucratic bottleneck tied to Chinese approvals.

Given China’s importance to Airbus, the issue looms large. China is Airbus’ largest customer by fleet size, and the company projects that Chinese airlines will require nearly 9,600 new aircraft over the next 20 years.

China’s aviation sector is on track to become the world’s largest air travel market by the early 2030s. This growth is being fueled by robust domestic demand, rising household incomes, and aggressive government investment in airports and airlines.

Passenger traffic in China is expected to grow by roughly 6% to 7% annually over the next decade, significantly outpacing the long-term global air traffic growth rate of about 3% to 4% per year. Beijing is also pursuing one of the most ambitious airport construction programs in aviation history.

When it comes to aviation infrastructure, China’s policymakers are playing the long game. On the drawing board are plans to expand the country’s network to roughly 450 transport airports by 2035, a goal that requires the construction of nearly 200 additional airports.

The C919 Standoff

At the center of the Airbus-China impasse is the COMAC C919, China’s answer to the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 families. The A320 and 737 are enormously popular, coveted by airlines for their efficiency and flexibility. Airbus and Boeing simply can’t make them fast enough. This supply-and-demand imbalance has helped elevate the base values and leasing rates for the A320 and 737, especially the A321neo (new engine option) variant.

China’s narrowbody C919 is well-engineered and already enjoys commercial service with Chinese airlines. However, the aircraft remains confined to the domestic market because it lacks certification from major Western regulators.

Securing approval from European and U.S. aviation authorities would dramatically expand the aircraft’s potential customer base. It also would signal to the world that China is a competitor to be reckoned with in commercial aviation.

Despite global economic headwinds, air travel is projected to greatly expand over the next decade, especially as increasingly affluent middle classes in emerging markets embrace tourism.

COMAC’s progress to date is no small feat. Developing a modern commercial airliner from scratch is among the most daunting industrial challenges in the world. The company has moved from concept to commercial operations, established a domestic customer base, and gradually increased production of the C919. Those achievements alone represent years of engineering work and tens of billions of dollars in investment.

That said, Airbus and Boeing are vast and they have decades or experience, as well as a far-flung network of suppliers and customers. Designing an aircraft is only the start of a very long, arduous and expensive undertaking.

Aircraft manufacturers must build global maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) networks, establish reliable supply chains, and secure regulatory approvals. They must also earn trust in an industry where mistakes are a matter of life and death. A new aircraft must prove over a long period of time that it can operate safely and efficiently. These hurdles have helped cement the Airbus-Boeing duopoly for generations.

Aerospace is an interconnected enterprise that’s transnational in scope. For that reason alone, U.S.-China aviation-related tariffs have been ineffectual. China seeks autonomy in the skies, but the C919 is heavily dependent on Western technology, e.g. engines and avionics. The same is true of COMAC’s C909 (formerly known as the ARJ21), a regional jet designed for short to medium-haul flights.

Although China is investing heavily in domestic alternatives to Western aviation technology, replacing these systems with homegrown technology will take years and extensive testing and certification.

That reliance underscores a persistent reality for China’s aviation sector. Beijing has long pushed for greater technological independence, but its premier passenger jet the C919 still depends heavily on foreign manufacturers.

Even so, there is little indication that Chinese leaders are backing away from their ambitions. Aerospace remains a cornerstone of Beijing’s industrial agenda, valued not only for its economic potential but also for its strategic importance.

Nationalistic Hype?

Aerospace sits at the nexus of the industrial and high-tech sectors. Military and commercial aircraft are two sides of the same coin; they support valued-added manufacturing jobs and technological innovations. Aerospace also signals export competitiveness. For far-sighted and patient Chinese policymakers, reducing dependence on foreign aircraft manufacturers transcends economics.

Accordingly, COMAC enjoys a level of government support that few aerospace ventures in history have received. Massive state funding, favorable policies, and support from state-owned airlines have sustained the company in the face of huge challenges.

That said, COMAC’s commercial success has not met Beijing’s lofty expectations. The company has racked up a large order book, with many commitments from state-linked entities. But as a whole, deliveries have greatly lagged targets.

Indeed, some analysts have dismissed COMAC’s ambitions as a lot of nationalistic hype and it’s easy to see why, if you look at the actual numbers.

COMAC initially planned to deliver 30 C919 jets in 2025, while targeting a ramp-up in annual production capacity to 50 aircraft. That ambition was later raised even further in March 2025, when the planemaker set a more aggressive goal of 75 deliveries. However, the outlook was subsequently slashed to just 25 aircraft amid ongoing supply chain constraints, particularly chronic shortages of engines and key components. Even with the reduced target, COMAC still fell short, delivering only 15 C919 jets over the year, according to its May report.

For now, Airbus and Boeing remain overwhelmingly dominant. Their aircraft have decades-long track records, extensive global support networks, and solid certification credentials.

What’s more, in recent months Boeing has executed a turnaround in orders and reputation, after years of struggle due to fatal accidents that shook the market’s faith in the company. Under CEO Kelly Ortberg, Boeing is again emphasizing quality and safety.

During President Trump’s visit to China in May, Boeing secured a 200-plane order from China. Ortberg has described the deal as an “initial tranche” and said he expects additional orders to follow.

Regardless, China’s domestic aviation market continues to expand at a rapid clip. If COMAC can secure a meaningful share of aerospace growth, it may not need immediate success overseas to become a formidable competitor. China is home to a vast market and it’s making inroads in the Asia-Pacific region.

The current dispute over Airbus deliveries is more than just bureaucratic wrangling. It represents another chapter in China’s long saga of geopolitical assertiveness.

John Persinos is the editor-in-chief of Aircraft Value Intelligence. For a condensed version of this story in video format, click here.

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