Global Aviation Round-Up from Aircraft Value Intelligence (AVN)

Aircraft leasing used to be fairly predictable. Rising interest rates pushed up borrowing costs, lease rates climbed, and airlines paid more to add capacity. When borrowing costs eventually fell, lease rates usually followed.

That pattern has broken down. Despite growing expectations that central banks will begin lowering interest rates, lease rates for many commercial aircraft remain unusually high. The biggest reason has little to do with the cost of money. There simply aren’t enough airplanes to go around.

The global shortage of commercial aircraft has become one of the defining challenges facing the aviation industry. Production delays at Airbus and Boeing continue to limit deliveries of new jets, leaving airlines with few options as passenger demand remains strong.

For carriers looking to grow their fleets or replace aging aircraft, leasing is often the only practical solution. That has shifted the balance of power decisively toward aircraft lessors, who can command premium rates for assets that are immediately available.

SMBC Aviation Capital recently noted that while interest rates still influence lease pricing, they are no longer the primary driver. Instead, today’s market is being shaped by a simple reality: demand for aircraft continues to exceed supply by a wide margin.

That means lease yields are likely to remain elevated even if benchmark interest rates begin to decline. Airlines need airplanes now, not years from now, and manufacturers still cannot deliver them fast enough.

It’s a striking departure from the way the industry has traditionally worked. Financing costs once played the leading role in determining lease economics. Today, availability matters far more. A ready-to-fly aircraft has become a valuable commodity, giving lessors pricing power that would have been difficult to imagine only a few years ago.

Backlogs Stretch for Years

The squeeze is especially evident in the narrowbody market. Airlines hoping to acquire popular models such as the Airbus A320neo or Boeing 737 MAX often face delivery queues stretching years into the future. Many have little choice but to lease aircraft or postpone expansion plans altogether.

The shortage has also extended the lives of older jets. Aircraft that might have been retired under normal market conditions are staying in service because suitable replacements simply aren’t available.

Scarcity is also changing the way aircraft are valued. Appraisers increasingly place greater emphasis on lease income and immediate availability. A midlife aircraft with years remaining on a solid lease can command a surprisingly high valuation because it offers something many airlines desperately need: capacity without the wait.

Eventually, manufacturers will work through supply-chain problems, production will accelerate, and competitive pressure should begin pulling lease rates lower. But that turning point still appears to be some distance away.

Labor shortages, engine production constraints, and persistent component bottlenecks continue to slow deliveries, leaving the market undersupplied and lease rates firmly supported.

John Persinos is the editor-in-chief of Aircraft Value Intelligence. For his recurring video reports covering the nexus of aerospace, technology and finance, click here.

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Global Aviation Round-Up from Aircraft Value Intelligence (AVN)

For all the advances aviation has made over the past century, one challenge has never gone away: weather.

Storms, turbulence, icing, wind shear, and rapidly changing conditions continue to shape every flight. They influence departure times, routing decisions, fuel planning, and whether an aircraft can safely reach its destination. Pilots have always had to respect the weather. The difference today is that they have far better tools for understanding it.

A new generation of weather technology is changing the way pilots see and respond to the atmosphere. More powerful sensors, improved satellite data, and advanced analytics are giving flight crews a clearer picture of conditions before and during a flight.

The result is not a replacement for pilot judgment. It is a more informed cockpit. For decades, pilots depended on weather briefings, onboard radar, and reports from other aircraft.

Those tools remain essential, but aviation is moving toward a more connected approach in which weather information is updated continuously and delivered directly to the people who need it.

Modern aircraft can already receive detailed weather information while in flight, including storm activity, winds aloft, turbulence reports, and changing conditions along a route. The next step is making that information more useful by helping pilots interpret what it means for a specific flight.

That shift is especially important as weather patterns become more difficult to predict. Rapidly developing storms and changing atmospheric conditions can create challenges even for experienced crews. Better data can give pilots more time to adjust course, avoid hazards, and make decisions before a situation becomes urgent.

The Role of AI

Artificial intelligence is beginning to play a role in that process. By analyzing enormous volumes of weather data, AI-powered systems can identify trends and patterns that may be difficult for humans to detect. Potential applications include improved turbulence forecasting, more accurate arrival planning, and better predictions of hazardous conditions.

Airlines are also looking at weather technology as a way to improve efficiency. A better understanding of winds, storms, and routing options can reduce unnecessary deviations, save fuel, and minimize disruptions. Even small improvements can have a major financial impact across large fleets.

The benefits extend beyond commercial aviation. Business aircraft operators and general aviation pilots often have fewer resources available than major airlines, making accurate weather information even more valuable. Advanced cockpit systems can provide smaller operators with capabilities that were once limited to the largest fleets.

The cockpit itself is changing as well. Traditional weather displays primarily showed pilots where hazards were located. New systems are increasingly focused on helping crews make decisions.

Instead of simply displaying a line of thunderstorms ahead, future systems could provide more context: how quickly a storm is developing, whether a route change is advisable, or how conditions may affect fuel requirements and arrival timing.

Still, aviation remains cautious when introducing new technology, and for good reason. Weather is complex, and no computer system can eliminate uncertainty. The most advanced tools are designed to support pilots, not replace their experience and decision-making.

John Persinos is the editor-in-chief of Aircraft Value Intelligence. For his recurring video reports covering the nexus of aerospace, technology and finance, click here.

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The U.S. Air Force is searching for answers on how to remedy supply chain bottlenecks in building engines for the service’s F-15EX fighter by Boeing and F-16 by Lockheed Martin.

The Air Force “is embarking on a multi-year procurement of engines for its fighter fleet, with a
projected peak demand of over 180 engines per year by FY 2034,” according to a Aug. 3 business notice. “The current industrial base has demonstrated significant challenges, including production delays, quality control issues, and critical obsolescence (i.e. diminishing manufacturing sources and material shortages) across key engine components. The government will pursue a strategic competition requiring industry to innovate manufacturing and guarantee supply chain resiliency.”

The notice said that the Air Force seeks to “deliver and sustain a decisive edge in airpower by fielding an advanced, reliable, and affordable propulsion enterprise for USAF/FMS [foreign military sales] aircraft (e.g. F-15EX and F-16).”

“We will achieve this through a revolutionary, performance-based competition that harnesses
industry innovation, secures our industrial base, and guarantees unrivaled flight line readiness for the war fighter,” the notice said, adding that the Air Force wants to hear from companies on the highest risk industry faces in increasing engine production, such as “raw material constraints (e.g. for specialized titanium/nickel alloys or manufacturing process bottlenecks (e.g., advanced casting or forging capacity).”

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Flexing new authorities to dramatically increase its loan commitments, the Pentagon’s Office of Strategic Capital (OSC) has made a conditional loan commitment of up to $820 million to Performance Drone Works (PDW) to expand domestic manufacturing to build high volumes of key drone components to mitigate vulnerabilities and choke points in the supply chain.

PDW said it will focus on propulsion, power and control, vision systems and other enabling technologies.

Loans to more drone companies are in the works.

“PDW will be one of several domestic component producers receiving OSC loan commitments in support of President Trump’s Executive Order 14307, ‘Unleashing American Drone Dominance,’” David Lorch, OSC director and a senior advisor to Deputy Defense Secretary Steve Feinberg, said in a statement July 31. “Expanding domestic component production will benefit manufacturers throughout the ecosystem and improve supply chain resilience.”

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Global Aviation Round-Up from Aircraft Value Intelligence (AVN)

The order books at the 2026 Farnborough International Airshow told an encouraging story for Boeing.

When the four-day event wrapped up on July 24, the U.S. aerospace giant had logged 186 firm commercial aircraft orders, topping Airbus’ total of 157. On paper, it was Boeing’s strongest Farnborough showing in years and another sign that the company is regaining its footing after several difficult years marked by safety crises, manufacturing setbacks and financial strain.

The result also reflects the steady progress being made under CEO Kelly Ortberg, who has spent the past two years focused less on splashy announcements and more on restoring confidence inside the company and among airline customers. Farnborough suggested that strategy is beginning to pay off.

Still, the headline numbers reveal only part of the picture. Neither manufacturer arrived in England needing to prove demand. Airlines have been ordering airplanes at such a brisk pace that both Boeing and Airbus are effectively sold out well into the next decade. Winning today’s order race is valuable, but the larger challenge remains building airplanes fast enough to satisfy customers without sacrificing quality.

Dreamliner Demand Lifts Boeing

Much of Boeing’s advantage came from long haul aircraft, where the 787 Dreamliner continues to attract strong interest from airlines expanding international networks.

Among the biggest announcements was Riyadh Air’s purchase of 28 additional 787s, reinforcing Saudi Arabia’s ambitions to become a global aviation hub. AerCap added another 15 Dreamliners, while Uganda Airlines selected four 787-9s alongside four 737 MAX 8s as it continues rebuilding its long-haul fleet.

Cargo operators also played a role. MSC Air Cargo committed to five 777-8 Freighters, underscoring continued confidence in the long-term air freight market despite softer cargo volumes in recent months.

Single aisle aircraft remained equally important. Leasing giant SMBC Aviation Capital placed an order for 100 Boeing 737 MAX jets, one of the largest commercial deals announced during the show. Luxair added two 737-10s, while Philippine Airlines committed to 15 787-10s with options for five more, a deal that could eventually widen Boeing’s lead once finalized.

Altogether, Boeing secured 134 narrowbody aircraft and 52 widebodies during the exhibition.

Airbus Keeps Pace Where It Matters

Airbus may have finished behind in total orders, but its performance hardly suggested weakness.

The European manufacturer landed its own 100 aircraft commitment from SMBC Aviation Capital, matching Boeing’s largest deal airplane-for-airplane with A320neo family jets. That outcome reflected the reality of today’s narrowbody market, where many lessors and airlines continue to spread purchases between both manufacturers rather than commit exclusively to one.

Saudi Arabian low-cost carrier flynas ordered 20 A321neos and five A330neos, while BermudAir expanded with 10 A220-300s. Riyadh Air also strengthened its Airbus fleet by purchasing six additional A350-1000s.

Philippine Airlines added further momentum by signing a memorandum of understanding covering nine A350-1000s. Although not yet a binding contract, the agreement signals that Airbus remains well positioned in the long-haul market.

The company finished the week with 127 narrowbody orders and 30 firm widebody sales.

A Close Narrowbody Contest

Boeing finished only seven aircraft ahead in the narrowbody segment, thanks largely to the SMBC order and Uganda Airlines’ modest MAX purchase.

The bigger difference came in widebody aircraft, where Boeing outpaced Airbus by 22 firm orders. Strong Dreamliner demand and renewed interest in the 777-8 Freighter ultimately provided the margin of victory.

Yet neither manufacturer left Farnborough worrying about sales. Combined, Boeing and Airbus are sitting on order backlogs approaching 17,000 aircraft. Airlines remain eager to modernize fleets with fuel efficient airplanes that lower operating costs and reduce emissions.

The obstacle is no longer convincing customers to buy. It is delivering aircraft on schedule while navigating supply chain bottlenecks, labor shortages and ongoing shortages of critical components.

That reality has changed the industry’s competitive landscape. Airshow order totals still generate headlines, but investors are paying closer attention to monthly production rates, delivery performance and manufacturing stability.

For Boeing, that shift could prove especially significant. Under Ortberg’s leadership, the company’s recovery increasingly rests on disciplined execution rather than ambitious sales targets. Farnborough offered another indication that customers are willing to reward that approach.

Airbus remains a formidable competitor with enormous demand across its product line, particularly the A320neo family and A350. But this year’s Farnborough belonged to Boeing. The company left England with the larger order tally and, perhaps more importantly, growing evidence that its long climb back is beginning to gain real altitude.

John Persinos is the editor-in-chief of Aircraft Value Intelligence.

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Global Aviation Round-Up from Aircraft Value Intelligence (AVN)

Editor’s Note: To watch John’s video presentation of this article, click here.

The image of the lone fighter ace dominating the skies has defined air combat for more than a century. That picture is beginning to change.

The next generation of aerial warfare is increasingly centered on teams in which a human pilot directs multiple autonomous aircraft, each capable of carrying out dangerous missions that once required another person in the cockpit.

That future moved a significant step closer on July 15, 2026, when the U.S. Air Force announced that an unmanned fighter drone had successfully launched an AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile during a live-fire test over the Mojave Desert.

The aircraft, Anduril’s YFQ-44A, is one of the leading contenders in the Pentagon’s Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) program, an ambitious effort to redefine how American airpower operates.

The missile test was more than another weapons demonstration. It showed that autonomous combat aircraft are progressing beyond surveillance and reconnaissance roles into missions that demand split-second decision-making in contested airspace.

While human operators remain responsible for authorizing the use of force, these aircraft are being designed to maneuver independently, coordinate with crewed fighters, and react far faster than traditional remotely piloted drones.

The CCA program reflects a broader shift in military thinking. Rather than relying exclusively on increasingly expensive manned fighters, the Air Force envisions a force structure in which relatively affordable autonomous aircraft accompany advanced jets such as the F-35 and the forthcoming Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter.

These robotic wingmen would extend the combat radius of crewed aircraft, carry additional missiles, conduct electronic warfare, gather intelligence, jam enemy radar, and, when necessary, enter heavily defended airspace that would expose human pilots to unacceptable risks. In effect, one pilot could command an entire formation of autonomous aircraft, multiplying combat power without multiplying the number of aircrews.

The concept also addresses one of the Pentagon’s biggest challenges: cost. Modern stealth fighters have become extraordinarily capable, but they are also extraordinarily expensive to build and maintain. Losing even a single aircraft in combat carries enormous financial and strategic consequences.

Collaborative Combat Aircraft are intended to be significantly less expensive than traditional fighters while remaining sophisticated enough to contribute meaningfully to high-end combat operations. Military planners envision buying these aircraft in substantial numbers, creating a force that is both more resilient and more difficult for adversaries to overwhelm.

Momentum behind the program continues to build. On June 17, the Air Force awarded additional CCA contracts aimed at accelerating development of autonomous mission systems and refining aircraft designs. Officials have emphasized rapid prototyping and fast iteration, hoping to field operational aircraft years sooner than would have been possible under traditional acquisition timelines.

Similar Efforts Across the Pond

The United States is hardly alone in pursuing this vision. Across the Atlantic, the United Kingdom is investing heavily in autonomous combat aviation as part of its broader Future Combat Air System strategy.

During the Farnborough International Airshow on July 22, BAE Systems introduced Brontanax, a new uncrewed combat aircraft concept designed to operate alongside Royal Air Force fighters.

According to the company, Brontanax is intended to serve as a force multiplier, performing reconnaissance, electronic warfare, and strike missions while integrating closely with crewed aircraft. Flight testing is expected to begin in 2027, with operational deployment targeted around 2030 if development proceeds as planned.

The parallel efforts in the U.S. and Britain underscore a growing consensus among Western militaries. Future air superiority will depend not only on building better fighters, but also on building smarter teams in which humans and autonomous systems work together seamlessly.

Artificial intelligence lies at the heart of that vision. Modern autonomous aircraft process enormous amounts of sensor data, identify potential threats, recommend tactical responses, and coordinate with nearby aircraft in real time.

Yet military officials consistently stress that these systems are designed to assist human decision-makers rather than replace them. The goal is not to remove pilots from the battlefield but to allow them to command increasingly complex operations without becoming overwhelmed.

That distinction is important because autonomous aircraft remain subject to strict operational controls. Human commanders retain authority over critical decisions, particularly the use of lethal force. Even as AI becomes more capable, military leaders continue to emphasize the importance of keeping people responsible for combat decisions.

For aerospace manufacturers, these developments represent one of the industry’s fastest-growing markets. Companies that can master autonomous flight software, secure communications, advanced sensors, and collaborative mission management stand to benefit from what could become one of the largest defense procurement efforts of the coming decade.

For military strategists, the implications are even broader. Air combat may soon revolve less around one fighter engaging another and more around interconnected networks of crewed and uncrewed aircraft operating as a single, coordinated force.

The fighter pilot is not becoming obsolete. Instead, the role is evolving into something more akin to a battlefield commander directing a team of intelligent robotic wingmen. Judging by the milestones reached this summer, that transformation is no longer a distant possibility. It has already begun.

John Persinos is the editor-in-chief of Aircraft Value Intelligence.

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DAYTON, Ohio—Pratt & Whitney‘s Engine Core Upgrade (ECU) for the F-35 fighter’s F135 engine is to have a critical design review (CDR) in August.

After CDR, ECU is to undergo ground testing “late next year, and then from there flight testing in the 2030 time frame–we’re on target,” John Sneden, the Air Force Life Cycle Management Center’s (AFLCMC) program acquisition executive for propulsion, told reporters on Monday at AFLCMC’s annual industry days conference.

In September 2024, the Defense Department said that it had awarded Pratt & Whitney a more than $1.3 billion cost plus incentive fee contract for the ECU to provide more cooling and power for the F135. The military services have said that F135 cooling and power enhancements are needed to allow the Lockheed Martin F-35 to accommodate new weapons and the new, planned radar, the Northrop Grumman AN/APG-85 radar.

The Air Force said that it decided, for cost reasons, to scrap the Advanced Engine Transition Program in fiscal 2024 and move ahead with ECU.

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DAYTON, Ohio–The Air Force is modifying a B-52H to resume Radar Modernization Program (RMP) testing for the bomber.

RMP is to feature an active electronically scanned array radar based on RTX’s APG-79 to replace the bomber’s Northrop Grumman APQ-166.

The Air Force’s fleet of B-52Hs is now 75 after a bomber testing the new radar crashed during take-off from Edwards AFB, Calif., on June 15 (Defense Daily, June 18). The crash killed all eight crew members, including the pilot, a Boeing employee and a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel, and the weapons systems officer, a colonel in the Air Force Reserves who worked at Boeing.

The last Boeing-built B-52H fielded in October 1962, and, while the Air Force looks to field 100 or more Northrop Grumman B-21 stealth bombers to replace the service’s B-1s and B-2s, the future path for the B-52 is under consideration, including a possible refurbishment and reactivation of some of the B-52s at the Air Force “boneyard” at Davis-Monthan AFB, Ariz., Col. Timothy Spaulding, the program acquisition executive (PAE) for bombers, told reporters here at the annual Air Force Life Cycle Management Center’s (AFLCMC) life cycle industry days.

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Shield AI and GE Aerospace on Monday said they have completed integration of an advanced vectoring exhaust nozzle, including actuation and engine light-off testing, into the engine that will power the venture-backed company’s future drone fighter jet, X-BAT.

The Axisymmetric Vectoring Exhaust Nozzle (AVEN) integrated into GE’s F110-GE-129E engine will enable X-BAT to take-off and land vertically and enhances maneuverability during horizontal flight.

“X-BAT is designed to take off and land vertically from anywhere—no airbase, no runway—and that capability lives or dies with propulsion,” Armor Harris, Shield’s senior vice president of aircraft engineering, said in a statement. “The AVEN is what makes vertical flight possible on a platform this size and this capable. We’re applying it differently than it was ever used before. Vertical flight requires fast gimbaling to maintain attitude control, a demand the original program never had to meet.”

Harris said that next steps include “iterating on our propulsion approach to make future versions faster, lighter and more capable.”

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The degree of survivability for future massed modular aircraft (MMA) is a key question for the program.

This month, the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) and U.S. Air Force announced MMA to replace the General Atomics-Aeronautical Systems, Inc. (GA-ASI) MQ-9A Reaper.

“The Joint Force’s reliance on low density, high-value ‘exquisite’ –greater than $30 million–manned and unmanned aircraft is unsustainable against adversaries utilizing layered defenses enabled by increasingly low-cost anti-aircraft capabilities,” according to DIU’s MMA solicitation.

The number of air to ground strikes in Iran by Reapers has far outstripped the number by any other aircraft, Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach said in May, yet the Air Force is down to a fleet of 135 MQ-9As, as the service has lost 24 Reapers in the conflict with Iran.

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